Global Roundwood Market 2019

August 26, 2019

By: The Working Forest Staff

 

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Roundwood – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The global roundwood market revenue amounted to $752M in 2018, standing approx. at the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 with an increase of 9.5% y-o-y. In that year, the global roundwood market reached its peak level of $770M. From 2017 to 2018, the growth of the global roundwood market failed to regain its momentum.

Production 2007-2018

Global roundwood production totaled 6.5M tonnes in 2018, reducing by -7.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, roundwood production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 9.9% y-o-y. In that year, global roundwood production attained its peak volume of 7M tonnes, and then declined slightly in the following year.

In value terms, roundwood production totaled $663M in 2018 estimated in export prices. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 with an increase of 13% year-to-year. In that year, global roundwood production reached its peak level of $676M. From 2012 to 2018, global roundwood production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports 2007-2018

Global exports amounted to 4.7M tonnes in 2018, waning by -9.7% against the previous year. Overall, the total exports indicated a remarkable expansion from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 when exports increased by 25% year-to-year. Over the period under review, global roundwood exports attained their peak figure at 6M tonnes in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, exports failed to regain their momentum.

In value terms, roundwood exports totaled $464M in 2018. Over the period under review, the total exports indicated strong growth from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last eleven year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, the roundwood exports increased by +11.9% against 2015 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2011 with an increase of 34% y-o-y. Over the period under review, global roundwood exports attained their maximum at $559M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, exports failed to regain their momentum.

Exports by Country

In 2018, Ukraine (933K tonnes), distantly followed by Bosnia and Herzegovina (601K tonnes), Croatia (540K tonnes), Swaziland (381K tonnes), Slovenia (264K tonnes) and the U.S. (252K tonnes) were the largest exporters of roundwood, together making up 63% of total exports. Latvia (184K tonnes), Estonia (176K tonnes), Hungary (145K tonnes), Poland (132K tonnes), the Netherlands (122K tonnes) and the Czech Republic (121K tonnes) held a little share of total exports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by the U.S., while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest roundwood markets worldwide were Ukraine ($64M), Bosnia and Herzegovina ($64M) and Croatia ($52M), with a combined 39% share of global exports. These countries were followed by Latvia, Slovenia, the U.S., Estonia, Swaziland, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary, which together accounted for a further 42%.

Among the main exporting countries, the U.S. recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to exports, over the last eleven year period, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The average roundwood export price stood at $99 per tonne in 2018, growing by 14% against the previous year. Over the last eleven years, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.1%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when the average export price increased by 14% against the previous year. In that year, the average export prices for roundwood reached their peak level and is likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

Export prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest export price was Latvia ($215 per tonne), while Swaziland ($51 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of export prices was attained by Latvia, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports 2007-2018

In 2018, approx. 4M tonnes of roundwood were imported worldwide; falling by -15.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the total imports indicated a notable expansion from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, the roundwood imports decreased by -34.0% against 2013 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2009 with an increase of 25% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global roundwood imports reached their peak figure at 6.1M tonnes in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, roundwood imports amounted to $395M in 2018. Over the period under review, the total imports indicated conspicuous growth from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, the roundwood imports decreased by -30.7% against 2013 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when imports increased by 23% against the previous year. In that year, global roundwood imports attained their peak of $569M. From 2014 to 2018, the growth of global roundwood imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

In 2018, Italy (1M tonnes), distantly followed by Romania (419K tonnes), South Africa (391K tonnes), Germany (304K tonnes), Austria (215K tonnes) and Hungary (191K tonnes) represented the main importers of roundwood, together committing 63% of total imports. The following importers – Slovenia (168K tonnes), the UK (159K tonnes), Slovakia (154K tonnes), Belgium (102K tonnes), Swaziland (93K tonnes) and Denmark (92K tonnes) – together made up 19% of total imports.

Imports into Italy increased at an average annual rate of +6.4% from 2007 to 2018. At the same time, South Africa (+118.4%), Slovakia (+23.4%), the UK (+22.3%), Swaziland (+21.2%), Romania (+11.8%), Slovenia (+10.0%), Germany (+9.3%), Belgium (+7.8%), Denmark (+4.2%) and Hungary (+2.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, South Africa emerged as the fastest growing importer in the world, with a CAGR of +118.4% from 2007-2018. By contrast, Austria (-1.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Italy (+12 p.p.), South Africa (+9.7 p.p.), Romania (+7.3 p.p.), Germany (+4.7 p.p.), the UK (+3.5 p.p.), Slovakia (+3.4 p.p.), Slovenia (+2.7 p.p.) and Swaziland (+2 p.p.) increased significantly, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Italy ($104M) constitutes the largest market for imported roundwood worldwide, comprising 26% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the UK ($35M), with a 8.9% share of global imports. It was followed by Germany, with a 8.1% share.

In Italy, roundwood imports increased at an average annual rate of +6.3% over the period from 2007-2018. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: the UK (+25.8% per year) and Germany (+7.0% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The average roundwood import price stood at $98 per tonne in 2018, surging by 17% against the previous year. In general, the roundwood import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when the average import price increased by 17% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the average import prices for roundwood reached their maximum at $101 per tonne in 2008; however, from 2009 to 2018, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Import prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest import price was the UK ($222 per tonne), while Romania ($45 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of import prices was attained by Slovakia, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

 

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